SAG Awards Film Predictions: How Winners Could Shift the Oscar Race

From “Minari” to “Ma Rainey’s Black Backside,” SAG wins may just alternate the path of a number of key Oscar races.

It’s custom to scrutinize the SAG Award winners as an Oscar-race bellwether — the performing department dominates Academy vote casting — however this yr the SAG nominations are out of sync. Ultimate SAG movie vote casting closed March 31 for the rite’s one-hour TNT broadcast April 4, however the awards are pre-taped in actors’ properties April 1 without a theater, hosts, or crimson carpet. Let the leaks start!

This time, 3 SAG Ensemble nominees didn’t make it to Highest Image competition: Spike Lee’s “Da five Bloods” and George C. Wolfe’s “Ma Rainey’s Black Backside” (each from Netflix), and Amazon’s “One Evening in Miami.” Oscar frontrunner, Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland,” with its in large part non-pro solid, didn’t land the standard SAG Ensemble nomination that frequently presages a Highest Image winner. Like “The Form of Water,” which gained the Highest Image Oscar in 2018 with out a SAG Ensemble nomination, “Nomadland” may just turn out to be a statistical anomaly.

Closing yr, SAG Ensemble nominee “Bombshell” simplest landed two actress nods and one profitable make-up award, all of the different nominees in that class went directly to win Oscars, together with SAG winner “Parasite,” which took house Highest Image, Director, Unique Screenplay, and World Function for Bong Joon Ho. All of the SAG performing winners repeated on the Oscars as smartly — Renée Zellweger (“Judy”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Brad Pitt (“As soon as Upon a Time in Hollywood”), and Laura Dern (“Marriage Tale”).

On occasion, SAG isn’t an element. In 2019, “If Beale Side road May just Communicate” megastar Regina King gained the Globe, used to be snubbed via SAG, and went directly to win Highest Supporting Actress on the Oscars. Closing yr the Academy confirmed defiant fortify for non-SAG nominee “Little Girls” via vote casting in each Saoirse Ronan and Florence Pugh, even though neither gained.

Amongst fresh SAG contenders who by no means made it to the Oscars are Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Position”), who took house the SAG Award, Lupita Nyong’o (“Us”), Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”), and Jennifer Lopez (“Hustlers”). Will this yr’s Jared Leto (“The Little Issues”), Amy Adams (“Hillbilly Elegy”) or Helen Zengel (“Information of the International”) nab the SAG sympathy vote?

Song in Sunday to determine. And test our movie predictions under, ranked via their chance to win.


“The Trial of Chicago 7”

Niko Tavernise/NETFLIX © 2020

Highest Movie Ensemble

“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Backside”
“One Evening in Miami”
“Da five Bloods”

Will Win: “Minari”
May just Win: “The Trial of the Chicago 7″
Will have to Win: “Minari”

Since 2008, 5 out of 12 SAG Ensemble winners featured other people of colour sooner than the digicam, from “Slumdog Millionaire,” “Lend a hand,” and “Hidden Figures” to “Black Panther” and “Parasite.” Without a “Nomadland,” and 3 contenders that weren’t well-liked sufficient with Oscar electorate to make Highest Image, this yr’s SAG race is between Korean-American Lee Isaac Chung’s transferring circle of relatives immigrant drama “Minari” and Aaron Sorkin’s agit-prop ’60s court docket drama “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”

“Minari” scored wonder Highest Actor (Steven Yeun) and Supporting Actress (Youn Yuh-jung) SAG nods that have been validated via the Academy actors department. “Trial” is determined by Francine Maisler’s impeccable ensemble casting, from SAG-nominated Sacha Baron Cohen as Abbie Hoffman and his yippie cohort Jeremy Robust to vets Mark Rylance and Frank Langella. That is A24’s 3rd solid nomination after “Girl Chicken” and “Moonlight,” which went directly to a Highest Image win. Each “Minari” and “Trial” were shedding to “Nomadland” and “Promising Younger Girl” of past due, and want to get well misplaced floor.

Promising Young Woman

Carey Mulligan in “Promising Younger Girl.”

Center of attention Options

Highest Movie Actress

Carey Mulligan (“Promising Younger Girl”)
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Backside”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Items of a Girl”)
Amy Adams (“Hillbilly Elegy”)

Will Win: Carey Mulligan
May just Win: Frances McDormand
Will have to Win: Frances McDormand

Will the recognition of “Nomadland” convey extra SAG fortify to two-time Highest Actress SAG and Oscar-winner Frances McDormand? Present developments recommend now not; this yr’s awards teams lean into rewarding emerging ability. “Promising Younger Girl” has been profitable, from Mulligan and “Promising Younger Girl” director Emerald Fennell gained on the Critics Selection Awards, whilst Fennell scored a DGA slot over Sorkin and beat the Oscar-winning scribe on the WGAs for Unique Screenplay.

Actors might word that Mulligan carries “Promising Younger Girl” on her slender shoulders, and provides a extra showy, chameleon-like efficiency as vengeful younger lady performing out towards males; McDormand is soulful and muted as a grieving widow. Mulligan wishes this win, because the rejiggered BAFTA juries neglected her from their performing nominations. McDormand may just ranking issues for convincingly and movingly interacting with genuine other people in “Nomadland,” which she additionally produced. British thespian Mulligan is deservedly admired; American McDormand breaks your center.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

“Ma Rainey’s Black Backside”


Highest Movie Actor

Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Backside”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Steel”)
Steven Yeun (“Minari”)
Gary Oldman (“Mank”)

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
May just Win: Anthony Hopkins
Will have to Win: Chadwick Boseman

With out the premature dying of Boseman, who gave his all within the ultimate efficiency of his lifestyles as formidable musician Levee within the movie adaptation of August Wilson’s “Ma Rainey’s Black Backside,” Anthony Hopkins’ Lear-like efficiency in “The Father,” as a dementia-ridden guy railing towards the death of the sunshine, would possibly have gained. It’s tricky to overcome the posthumous Boseman.

Highest Movie Supporting Actress

Youn Yuh-Jung  (“Minari”)
Maria Bakalova (“Borat Next Moviefilm”)
Glenn Shut (“Hillbilly Elegy”)
Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
Helena Zengel (“Information of the International”)

Will Win: Youn Yuh-Jung
May just Win: Maria Bakalova
Will have to Win: Youn Yuh-Jung

This class is shut: Bulgarian discovery Bakalova is a revelation as she holds her personal now not simplest with Baron Cohen as Borat but in addition the real-life Rudolph Giuliani, however she may just accept the popularity of a nomination. Whilst awards perennial Shut has been Oscar nominated seven instances with out profitable, she did win the SAG award for “The Spouse.” Obviously, Ron Howard’s significantly slammed “Hillbilly Elegy” performed smartly sufficient for the nominating committee to provide each Adams and Shut nods. Olivia Colman didn’t win for “The Favorite,” so she may just pick out up momentum right here for her beleaguered caretaker daughter in “The Father.” The win will have to pass to “Minari,” for Korean film megastar Youn’s canny, comedic, and poignant function because the grandmother.

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

“Judas and the Black Messiah”

Warner Bros.

Highest Movie Supporting Actor

Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (“One Evening in Miami”)
Chadwick Boseman (“Da five Bloods”)
Jared Leto (“The Little Issues”)

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
May just Win: Sacha Baron Cohen
Will have to Win: Daniel Kaluuya

In contrast to the Oscars, Kaluuya isn’t competing with costar LaKeith Stanfield as the person who betrayed Fred Hampton to the FBI in 1968. His channeling of murdered Illinois Black Panther chairman will have to lift the day towards Baron Cohen’s wily flip as Yippie Abbie Hoffman and “Hamilton” breakout Leslie Odom Jr. as crooner Sam Cooke. Kaluuya follows up his nomination for “Get Out,” whilst Leto hasn’t been within the awards zone since he gained the Oscar for “Dallas Patrons Membership,” and Boseman is prone to win for his extra explosive lead function in “Ma Rainey’s Black Backside.”

Highest Movie Stunt Ensemble

“Da five Bloods”
“Marvel Girl 1984”
“Information of the International”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Will Win: “Da five Bloods”
May just Win: “Marvel Girl 1984”
Will have to Win: “Da five Bloods”

This prize most often is going to a struggle movie (“Hacksaw Ridge”) or comic-book film (“Avengers: Endgame”). The Vietnam struggle sequences in “Da five Bloods,” which the SAG nominating committee admired sufficient to provide an Ensemble slot, will have to take the prize. The class has just one Highest Image contender, “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” which is healthier identified for its court docket dynamics than its restaging of side road riots. Smartly-mounted duration delusion journey “Mulan” and post-Civil Conflict western “Information of the International” boast extra craft Oscar nods than “Marvel Girl 1984,” however on the other hand you’re feeling concerning the Patty Jenkins sequel, it’s concerning the stunts. SAG electorate commemorated the unique in 2017.

All in all, particularly after the 2012 AFTRA merger, SAG electorate have a tendency to be a tad extra mainstream and not more subtle than Oscar electorate, who pass their very own manner. On Sunday, the SAG Awards will display which manner the winds are blowing.

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